Algorithmic pricing adoption increases margins in Germany's retail gasoline market, but only for non-monopoly stations; in duopolies, margins rise only when both stations adopt.
Assistant Professor (Lecturer)
Daniel Ershov
UCL School of Management
Daniel Ershov is a quantitative marketing and empirical industrial organization researcher studying how digital technologies change competition, regulation, and market outcomes. He is an Assistant Professor in the Marketing & Analytics group at the UCL School of Management. His articles have appeared in the Journal of Political Economy, Marketing Science, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, RAND Journal of Economics, The Economic Journal, International Journal of Industrial Organization, and Oxford Review of Economic Policy.
Selected Peer-Reviewed Publications
All articlesUsing more than 100 million Twitter posts, the paper estimates that 96% of sponsored influencer posts are undisclosed; a lower-bound classification still implies 82%.
German Instagram disclosure rules increased disclosure but also increased sponsored content by 12%, raised exposure to undisclosed sponsorship, and reduced engagement.
Recent Working Papers
All working papersOnline dating affected U.S. marriage markets differently across desktop and mobile eras: desktop usage raised divorce rates, while mobile activity lowered marriage and divorce rates.
Pricing algorithms produced by contractors and LLMs are mostly supervised-learning routines; economics prompts improve contractor algorithms but can raise LLM prices through demand-estimation mistakes.
Studies how the NCAA name, image, and likeness policy expanded influencer advertising opportunities and changed sponsored social media activity.
Consumer complementarity in DIY home improvement purchases grows with category experience, creating measurable value from moving along the learning path.
Policy & Public Writing
All policy writingUCL School of Management long read arguing that AI tools such as ChatGPT are more likely to support complex problem solving than eliminate human critical thinking.
CEPR VoxEU column on the scale of undisclosed influencer advertising and why disclosure rules can miss hidden sponsorship.
The Antitrust Source article on how pricing algorithms may act as third-party facilitators of collusion, drawing on recent U.S. cases and economic evidence on algorithmic pricing.
CEPR VoxEU column on how Twitter's October 2020 sharing friction affected news diffusion and political asymmetries.
CPI Antitrust Chronicle article summarizing empirical evidence on AI-driven algorithmic pricing adoption in German retail gasoline markets and its implications for competition.
Research Areas
Algorithmic Pricing and Competition
Pricing algorithms, outsourced algorithm design, and the conditions under which algorithmic systems change competitive conduct.
- Algorithmic Pricing and Competition: Empirical Evidence from the German Retail Gasoline Market
Journal of Political Economy, 132(3), 723-771 - Outsourcing Algorithm Development: Evidence from Contractors and LLMs
CEPR Discussion Paper No. 20901 - Autonomous Algorithmic Collusion: Economic Research and Policy Implications
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 37(3), 459-478
Competition Policy
Research on market regulation, auction design, innovation incentives, and the empirical basis for competition policy.
- Interaction of Spectrum Auctions and Mobile Market Competition: Review of Theory and Evidence from European 4G Auctions
International Journal of Industrial Organization, 106, Article 103287 - Market Incentives for Business Innovation: Results from Canada
Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, 12(1), 47-65
Digital Platforms and Online Markets
Empirical work on search, entry, congestion, matching, and information frictions in online markets.
- Variety-Based Congestion in Online Markets: Evidence from Mobile Apps
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 16(2), 180-203 - What Happens When Dating Goes Online? Evidence from U.S. Marriage Markets and Health Outcomes
CEPR Discussion Paper No. 21054 - Sharing News Left and Right: Frictions and Misinformation on Twitter
The Economic Journal, 134(662), 2391-2417 - Competing with Superstars in the Mobile App Market
NET Institute Working Paper 18-02
Influencer Marketing and Disclosure
Research on hidden advertising, disclosure regulation, and the changing supply of sponsored content on social media.
- Frontiers: How Much Influencer Marketing Is Undisclosed? Evidence from Twitter
Marketing Science, 44(3), 505-515 - The Effects of Advertising Disclosure Regulations on Social Media: Evidence from Instagram
RAND Journal of Economics, 56(1), 74-90 - Expansion of Influencer Advertising: Evidence from the NCAA NIL Policy
Working paper
Demand Estimation and Market Structure
Demand estimation, complementarity, deregulation, and market design questions in differentiated-product markets.
- Estimating Complementarity with Large Choice Sets: An Application to Mergers
RAND Journal of Economics, 56(4), 689-707 - Learned Complementarity
Working paper - Estimating the Effects of Deregulation in the Ontario Wine Retail Market
Resting paper